Back to Lay – A beginners guide
WHAT IS A BACK TO LAY BET?
Back to Lay betting has a very simple principle:
“You want to back a horse at high odds and lay it off at lower odds and take the difference in profit”
And if it was that simple we’d all be millionaires!
HOW DO YOU CHOOSE A BACK TO LAY CANDIDATE?
The question to ask is: Why is the horses price going to shorten?
THEN: Where is the evidence to back up the answer?
So you have to have an evidence based strategy to follow.
Insidetraxs has two strategies to achieve this:
FIRST is based on:
- Choose front runners, who have no competition for the lead, in all age handicap sprints
- Look at whether they have traded below their BSP in previous races
- Have they got form on the track?
- Is there any other advantage or disadvantage which might affect the horse’s running (draw, jockey, long lay off etc)?
- What feeling do I get from the betting on this horse?
When all the boxes are ticked then we have our back to lay candidate. Watch our video here.
SECOND is based on STATISTICS:
In the MEMBERS Newsletter we have a whole section devoted to B2Ls.
The selections here are generated based on statistical and historical data – with only a little input from me.
The selections have traded at 50% of BSP (Betfair Starting Price) at least 80% of the time in a minimum of 5 last runs.
- These are the selections which you should use if following the B2L strategy in the YouTube video.
- The star system should help you stake the right amount (1-5* where 1* is your minimum bet and 5* is 5x your minimum bet)
- You should back the selection close to the start of the race at BSP (or better if you can)
- Then lay the selection in-play, ensuring the lay bet is kept if placed before going in-play, at the right stake and price to deliver 50%
WHEN IS THE RIGHT TIME TO BACK MY BACK TO LAY CANDIDATE?
The answer to the question is close to the off for the B2L section but for the other selections in the “Hints & Tips” section there isn’t an exact time. It will depend on whether you are convinced that your candidate is a strong back to lay but doesn’t have much of a chance of winning or if you think it is a live candidate for winning as well. There are advantages and disadvantages to backing at different times but there are some principles you should follow:
- Never put your whole stake on the night before or early in the morning
- Look at different sources, the papers, at the races, racing uk, online bookies and get a feel for what they think is the right price.
- If you are going to back early the advantage is you might double your money before the off if the price shortens, or have a big negative going into the race if the price radically drifts.
- Better to wait and see what the sentiment of the market is, see what corridor your horse is trading in and look to back the horse anytime between 30 minutes and the off at the top end of the trading corridor.
Remember that we have based our whole strategy on the horse beating it’s Betfair Starting Price (BSP) so anything else you do is aimed at getting better than the BSP.
Watch our video here.
ALSO if your horse drifts radically (more than 33%) I recommend giving it a miss this time.
HOW MUCH CAN I MAKE?
This will be entirely dependent on your stake and your acceptance of risk.
Insidetraxs often recommends back to lays which can return 50% on your stake. Our testing shows it is more profitable than Dobbing (double or bust – 100% ROI) and so I am not a great fan of that strategy.
Our FREE Staking Calculator can be of great help and can be found on the homepage to be downloaded.
The rule of thumb here is:
“When I put in my stake and the odds I have backed the horse at and the profit margin I want; are the LAY ODDS I will need the horse to run to reasonable based on everything I know?”
Watch our video here.
WHAT TO DO NEXT?
Find out more information from other sites.
Sign up to the Insidetraxs MEMBERS Newsletter (first 14 days are FREE) and do some dummy runs – use the calculator to simulate a bet you might do and see if your horse does get backed at your required odds.
THE RESOURCES YOU NEED
- Insidetraxs Members Newsletter for the B2L candidates chosen by both methods above (Click on tab above)
- Download our Free Staking Calculator (see our video here).