What is a Back to Lay bet and when do I use this betting strategy? Exchanges like Betfair allow you to LAY a horse (bet that it will loose) as well as BACK it opening up ways of betting that make money no matter the result.
In a series of blogs and Youtube videos we will show you how to:
- Identify different betting opportunities
- Formulate winning betting strategies
- Execute those strategies to get maximum profit
The first betting strategy we will look at is the simple “Back To Lay” strategy (see YouTube video below).
The basic concept behind the back to lay strategy is that the odds of horses that go off in front (front runners) shorten in running. In fact if you can identify a race where there is only one true front runner and the track and distance favour front runners you have a solid basis for a back to lay bet.
Let’s take an example:
6th June 2018 – Wolverhampton 5f 13.50
I tipped Krystallite (see link above) to win because Wolverhampton over 5f suites a horse with early speed who can get out in front and because most of the race is run round a bend there is little racetrack left for those in behind to get revved up and get by. The words commentators often use in 5f at Wolves is “not a lot got into this”.
The horse was a triple Course & Distance winner (C&D) so I knew he would handle the track and distance. He had also only just failed to get a four timer at the track when just caught the time before by a well handicapped Irish invader.
This horse is a natural “Back to Lay” if that’s the strategy you want to follow.
So we have achieved step 1 above and identified the betting opportunity – Wolves 5f, front runner, handles the track and the distance.
Step 2 is formulate the winning betting strategy. Here there are several options with the horse at 7/2.
- Back the horse for a straight win – the horse must win to get paid 3.5x stake as profit
- Back the horse for a place at about 1.7 – the horse needs to be placed to get paid 70% of your stake as profit.
- Back the horse at 4.5 on the exchanges and then lay it in running at 2.25 – the horse needs to lead to the final furlong to double your money.
So let’s take it that we decide to go with the “Back to Lay” bet as our Plan A for this race. We bet £100 on Krystallite @ 4.5 on Betfair Exchange – profit is £350.
Now we place a £200 lay bet on on Krystallite @2.25 on Betfair Exchange – liability is £250. If then the lay bet is taken in running, which it will if Krystallite leads to the final furlong, you will have a £100 profit ie doubled your money.
If you want to be more conservative you could place a £150 lay bet @3.0 to give you a 50% return ie £50 profit or simply lower the stakes.
What makes this bet payout is not whether the horse wins or is placed we just need it to lead and look as if it might win at around the furlong pole.
The fact that we have chosen a front runner on a course where the in running boys know the statistics favour front runners means that all we have to have is confidence that Krystalline can get out in front.
For all strategies you should have a plan B. Plan B here is if Krystalline doesn’t get out in front that we quickly change our lay bet to £100 @4.5 and look to exit the bet at no loss (cashing out if necessary at minimal loss).
The video below is a live example of the above process using Thirsk’s 17.15 race on 12th June 2018: