In order for a Betfair – Back to Lay to be successful a horses’ price needs to shorten (for whatever reason) either before the off or in running.
The price should shorten by at least 25% but preferably by 50% or more.
Some reasons why a horses’ price shortens:
- It is a front runner and looks like it might win
- The horse travels well
- The horse is heavily backed pre race and then runs like a winner in running
- The horse has sweated or played up in the past (for example refused to race). When this doesn’t happen the price drops.
These are the main reasons although of course there are many other reasons which I will not go into.
I will only be focussing on front runners here.
What do I look for:
- I normally look at all age handicap sprints. However on some courses that favour front runners I will look at longer distances.
- I look for horses who are quick out of the stalls and like to front run.
- I look for courses where front runners have a good record and where the draw makes a difference.
- I look at horses who have form over the course and distance.
- Finally I look for races where the horses I have chosen has little or no competition for the lead.
Have a look at the youtube video below to see a live example of the above process:
Back to Lay Staking Calculator
Once you have chosen a horse you can use the Back to Lay Staking Calculator to input your stake, the horses odds and the profit margin you want to make
The Calculator gives an exact stake and odds that will deliver your profit margin whether the horse Wins or Loses.
The strategy being used here is to pick horses who are most likely to want to lead. The strategy assumes that if our horse does in fact lead that it’s price will go down to our required level to pay out our desired profit.
BE READY TO BAIL OUT IF ANY OF OUR ASSUMPTION TURNS OUT NOT TO HAPPEN.
So if our horse gets a bad start and doesn’t get the lead then CASH OUT ASAP for a small profit if possible or as small a lose as possible.