|Today I am going through the Newcastle card with my thoughts race by race so hope this works for you? See below.|
Results from Yesterday
NAP was a WINNER – just!
BtL didn’t get to the front as expected so I cashed out before the bend.
Race by Race – Indian Pursuit came in and a few decent steers on BtLs.
NB About 80% of all money traded on a race comes in the last 10 minutes. 50% in the last 5 minutes. If you see big market moves either in or out then take heed!
NAP OF THE DAY:
SILENT HUNTER Newcastle 6.15
BACK TO LAY
INSURPLUS Newcastle 7.15
See below and also see below for other steers for possible BtLs
3.10 Fair Star is unexposed and has run well on all three starts winning twice. You should reasonably expect further improvement and he is 2lbs well in here so difficult to oppose. King of The South could also improve and may give the selection most to do.
3.45 Budanova is lightly raced and with some improvement and Hollie Doyle in the plate should reverse form with Calonne. Stand Free should be competitive while Deolali will want to lead and try and dictate from the front although I think he is better over 7f.
4.15 As usual in races like this (2yr olds) watch the betting particularly in last 10 or 5 minutes. Follow that money would be sensible. Haggas’s runners normally run well here and Tudhope/O’Meara is a strong duo. I won’t tip anything at this point.
4.45 I’m drawn to Patsy Fagan with Paul Hanagan on board. He’s been knocking on the door and as a big galloping type he should like the straight 6f. Fircombe Hall has had money come this morning and makes appeal off bottom weight with Hollie Doyle on board. Finally, Stay Smart might get in amongst the finishers. Pretty open and a few others might also get involved so not too confident.
5.15 In a race that looks wide open I will take a chance on Thatmeen who is pretty consistent. Can be excused a poor performance two outings ago when he found 5f too sharp. He is up in grade so will need to be at his best but on form he has the beating of a few of these including Astro Jack. There is a case to be made that Thatmeen’s form lines are inferior to Mohareb and this may be so. In that case Mohareb will be a strong contender.
5.45 Bringitonboris has 2 wins and 2 places from 4 runs here. Joe Fanning is a great judge of pace and I like him here at Newcastle. Convertible is relatively unexposed and is from a strong stable with a jockey who is in great form (20.9% SR at Newcastle).
6.15 You have to take it on trust that Silent Hunter has retained the ability demonstrated by his first two runs in 2018 and that he is fit. If this is the case then he should really walk this as many of his opponents in those two races have gone on to win and are all rated above 79. Money has come for him this morning which seems to imply that I am right.
6.45 This is really quite a good race for the grade. It is wide open with several showing promising form. Under these circumstances, you have to look at the market or look for an angle. Red Jasper likes to lead and Andrew Mullen is someone you’d want on board to make this work. Might be the angle to do this one BtL and hope he can stay out in front. If Medicine Jack backs up his latest run he will be in the frame.
7.15 Insurplus must be due a win soon. Has won over C&D about this time last year off 5lbs higher mark so has the capability and has looked to be running well recently. Not a confident shout but will be a decent price. Plenty of others could have a case made for them but Nubough is the one with the best recent form.
Best of luck if you are trading.
The InsideTraxs Team