|Today it’s hints & tips for Southwell.
Results from 10th
NAP touched off (traded at 1.06)
BtL – Paid 50%+
LAY TO BACK – Covaglia 5th however Arabic Welcome was a point and shoot (rider used hands and heels)
Strong hint for Nurse Dee.
HEAT AND DUST – was nibbled at but real money never came for this one. The horse was severely outpaced coming round the bend and clearly needs further. Two options for Sir M – keep running over too short a distance until the OR drops and then find a weak 1m2f or 1m3f race or move now to a longer distance – let’s see.
For those of you who haven’t seen it, there is a YouTube video on Sir Mark Prescott and how he works the handicap system here
NB About 80% of all money traded on a race comes in the last 10 minutes. 50% in the last 5 minutes. If you see big market moves either in or out then take heed!
NAP OF THE DAY:
NICK VEDDER – see below
LAY TO BACK
BEACH BREAK – see below
BACK TO LAY
CENTURION SONG – see below
4.40 There are a lot of experienced types here and most of the form lines lead to Centurion Song being a bit ahead of the handicapper. The 7lb apprentice did a good job LTO when coming out on top of Slowmo (one I like) and the pair had pulled 4l+ ahead of the third. In the ruck that day was Red Stripes and Giogiobbo who I can’t see reversing if they run to the same level. Gossip goes well here and Fantasy Keeper has the assistance of Tom Marquand and should be watched in the betting.
5.10 Alpha Theta couldn’t have won more easily at this C&D last month and with any improvement will be impossible to beat.
5.40 Mister Freeze had a bad day at the office LTO, hampered at the start forced very wide round the turn and not surprisingly found little up the straight. Lincoln Red, who won that day and was 10l in front now has a 6lbs swing against him. It’ll be interesting but I think the change of jockey, more luck in running and the 6lb swing makes the selection the better option.
6.10 All the protagonists here seem to be running over distances which aren’t ideal. Perfect Swiss would be better over a mile but is a nice horse who will give his running. Liamba has won over 7f but would be better over 6f. So I am going to take a chance that Borsdane Wood will like being down in grade, back to an OR he can win off and with the recent run under his belt strip a lot fitter for his new yard.
6.40 Marve is lightly raced, a C&D winner and is likely to improve still further.
7.10 Nick Vedder is a horse we have liked here at InsideTraxs. Didn’t run up to form LTO when 4th but has a great chance to put that right and is 4lbs well in. Watch out he may trade quite high in running as he comes from behind. Dirchill is the obvious danger with Katelli being useful if form can be reproduced on the Fibresand.
7.40 One of those best of a bad bunch jobs. Bill Cody is the only C&D winner which counts for a lot round here and I’m Easy has been piled into for a gambling stable on handicap and Fibresand debut so don’t ignore. Beach Break is currently a short favourite based on one run and is probably a lay.
Best of luck if you are trading.
The InsideTraxs Team