FALSE FAVOURITE – ALFIE SOLOMONS Newc 18.15

Alfie Solomons is represents the definition of a false favourite:

  • He has the best form in the race but that form is a single race over a different distance on turf (versus the Tapeta today).
  • His stable and jockey, albeit that they have good records at Newcastle, are still far from the higher echelons of the sport.
  • There are 10 opponents (3 first time outers) all of whom are unexposed (Hard Forest is the veteran here with 4 runs) and one or more may come out of the group and prove to be better than Alfie.
  • Alfie showed early speed and led at Newbury. If he does that here the odds are stacked against him making all as the course favours hold up horses and those that have made all have stuck on gamely winning by small margins (a lot to ask from a 2 yr old)
  • Finally Alfie is drawn low in Stall 2. There have been only 2 winners out of stall 2 in 24 five furlong races at Newcastle this year (both in six horse races. With 12 runners stall 2 is a bad draw.

It is therefore a nonsense to have Alfie Solomons at Evens favourite with the above issues stacked against him even if he has got the best form going into this.

It doesn’t mean he won’t win but it’s not a flip of a coin that he will.

It’s like me rolling a dice and you think there are three 1s and three 2s on it. You would think your chances of getting a 1 or a 2 are equal ie evens. You bet on 1 and I roll the dice and it comes up 1 but at the same time find out that there were four 2s and only two 1s on the dice – you would feel cheated a bit but would have won. Now take the same scenario and it comes up 2 – you would definitely feel cheated!!

So Alfie Solomons is a FALSE FAVOURITE. He has the best form that we have seen so far from any of the runners but that is about it. He also has a lot of factors against him – different surface and distance, draw, run style to name a few.

One thought on “FALSE FAVOURITE – ALFIE SOLOMONS Newc 18.15

  • June 5, 2018 at 7:05 pm
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    ALFIE SOLOMONS was a false favourite and certainly at evens was worth a lay bet. In fact if you had done so on Betfair you could have made a profit on the drift as he went out as far as 2.8 (actually started at 2.56) and was even higher in the run.
    However he did have the best form in the field and saw off Hard Forest with nothing else coming out of the pack. His jockey also didn’t allow him to lead, he had enough speed and stamina to get this stiff 5f and the tapeta didn’t bother him – all factors we didn’t really know before the race.

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