Flat horse racing tracks are all different. InsideTraxs shares some track facts for Lingfield Park which can help you bet smarter:
There is a massive stall bias towards high drawn horses over 5f that also exists over 6f; but is not quite as dramatic. Don’t waste your money on horses drawn 1 in 5f or 6f races.
In fact 42% of all winners come out of the highest draw while the widest 4 drawn horses have won 2/3 of all races. On the other side if drawn 1 to 6 you have a 4% chance of winning. That means if you back a horse coming out of stalls 1-6 you really need to be getting odds of 25/1 minimum to be getting value!!
So if you look at this evenings meeting (9th June 2018) in the 18.20 race the first and second favourites come from stall 3 & 4 respectively. The favourite at publication is 7/4 and the second favourite is 4/1. While they probably have the best form in the race (and may win) they represent awful value – particularly the favourite.
InsideTraxs.co.uk will be publishing TrackFaxs about every flat racing track, including all weather by the end of June so that you can use the advantages of the draw, pace or going to create winning betting strategies and BET SMARTER.
TracFaxs will focus on looking for;
- obvious draw bias – and then relating that to the races over that distance at the track that day. This will result in advise on which horses are likely to be favoured and how a race is likely to be run.
- pace analysis – this will highlight those horses who like to run in a favoured way eg front running tracks will be identified and horses who front run highlighted.
- trainer and jockey stats – those that do well on the track and who therefore will have a better than expected chance of winning as a result.
All TracFaxs should be turned into betting strategies for that day to extract the maximum value from this inside knowledge that the majority of those punting will not be using and turn that edge into profits!