FREE tips for the only flat racing meeting tonight.
TAI HANG DRAGON – 19.20
Has been running in better class events and his mark is slipping to something more workable. Has won here over the distance so there are several factors in his favour – reducing mark, lower grade and previous C&D win. Sean Levey is making the trek from riding in the 14.35 at Newmarket so he must think he will have at least a chance of a winner or two.
HAPPY ODESSY – 18.20
There is a massive draw bias at Lingfield over 5f where you just simply have to be drawn high to have any chance. In fact 42% of all winners come out of the highest draw while the widest 4 drawn horses have won 2/3 of all races. On the other side if drawn 1 to 6 you have a 4% chance of winning. That means if you back a horse coming out of stalls 1-6 you really need to be getting odds of 25/1 minimum to be getting value!! Happy Odessy is unraced but comes out of stall 13 – the outside stall – which statically gives her nearly an evens chance of winning on the draw alone – you can still get 9/2 if you’re quick.
The massive stall bias towards high drawn horses over 5f also exists over 6f but not quite as dramatic. Don’t waste your money on horses drawn 1 in 5f or 6f races.