Draw Bias & Pace Analysis
It is often said that the place to be at Hamilton in the sprints is on the stand side rail (drawn high) however there are several complicating factors:
- The pace of the race is more important than the draw
- They move the stall from up against the rail to the middle to preserve the ground
- The going makes a big difference with low numbers generally favoured in soft going as the ground is generally better on the far rail.
So over the sprint course look for –
- Is there an obvious front runner (just one as if there are more than one they could cut each others throats)?
- Has your horse got course form or has it got form over a slightly longer distance than today (Hamilton takes stamina)?
- Has your jockey got a good strike rate at the track (see below)?
Over the 1 mile distance there is a clear bias towards horses draw low as they are more likely to bag the rail.
Hamilton seems to have a bit of a pace bias favouring front runners. In terms of the individual distances Hamilton ranks :
5 Furlongs – 9th out of 31 courses
6 Furlongs – 11th out of 27 courses
8 Furlongs – 12th out of 25 courses
The stats indicate it is very difficult for a horses who gets outpaced and is at the back to come over the top late in 5 furlong races.
“It’s vital in distance races at Hamilton that you get your mount to settle early on, otherwise you’ll be going far too quick down the hill, long before you get to the top loop. Balance is all-important for any horse running there, which means you get a few track specialists. The steep run down to the bottom of the dip can cause jockeys to start racing too early and, because it’s a long way home from there, they can be walking from the two to the one pole. There’s very little draw bias in sprint races”. Jason Weaver.
Trainers & Jockeys
Tim Easterby, Kevin Ryan, J P Shanahan, David O’Meara, Michael Dodds, Mark Johnston, Keth Dalgleish and Richard Fahey
Daniel Tudhope, Jamie Gormley, Tony Hamilton, Joe Fanning, P J McDonald, Graham Lee and Conor Beasley.