Kempton Racecourse (All Weather)
Draw Bias & Pace Analysis
The 5 furlong course at Kempton is probably the tightest 5 furlong course in the country and therefore not surprisingly it is a massive advantage to be drawn low. A lot of the 5 furlong races are won at the start, when a low drawn runner breaks quickly and makes all. With the very short straight it is very hard for front runners who have gone the correct pace to be pegged back.
Over 6 furlongs, even though it is run on the outer loop, does still favour low drawn stalls with stall 1 winning nearly a third of all races. This draw bias is seen at 7 furlongs as well but not as significant (stall 1 & 2 make up a third of all winners) and then it is only slight over 1m.
The Pace Analysis shows that although Kempton is obviously one course in effect it has a track within a track. Over 5 and 10 furlongs the inner loop is used, which means the course is a tight with a short run in. So for these distances, particularly over 5 furlongs front runners are massively favoured.
However for the other distances which use the outer loop, the bias is completely reversed and it is very hard for front runners to hold on up the very long straight. Kempton has one of the most occurrences of horses losing having been matched at 1.10 or less on Betfair Exchange.
Trainers & Jockeys
|Silvestre De Sousa||16.6|