Make more money scalping on Betfair

The secret is to choose the right horses in the right races

SCALPING ON BETFAIR

If you want to make more money scalping on Betfair then you there is a simple set of rules that you need to follow.

One scalp is not the same as another

The chart below shows the different odds bands for Betfair and how a one tick scalp in any one band can deliver a different profit:

Make more money scalping

So you can see that a £100 stake returns different % profits for every successful tick.

For example say I have a horse at 2.00 which I back for £100. I then put in the lay bet for £100 at 1.99 and it is taken. I will have a £1 win on the horse and if I cash out I will get 0.50p or 0.5% return on my £100.

The chart has worked out the range of returns for each tick in each betting range.

The standout point here is that the returns be twice as high when you scalp at the lowest point on the range as on the highest. So:

If I scalp in the betting range 10 to 20 on Betfair what are the returns:

Tick is worth 0.5 points x Stake (£100 say) = £50/tick free bet on the horse concerned.

CASH OUT VALUE:

£50 @ 20 = £2.50p which is a 2.5% return on the £100 stake.

£50 @ 10 = £5.00p which is a 5% return on the £100 stake.

So if I scalp a horse at 10.5 to 10 then my return is potentially TWICE what I might get if I scalp a horse at 20 to 19.5.

Liquidity is still key

The chart above shows that the potential returns from scalping go up as the odds of the horse go up. HOWEVER the market liquidity goes down as those odds go up.

So if you are trying to scalp a horse at say 100 then trying to get a £100 back bet matched will be very difficult as in a normal race where £300K to £400K is the total amount in the market there could be as little as £1K to £3K placed on this horse. If you want a £100 back bet matched and then £100 lay bet matched then you could represent 20% of the total amount bet on that horse (£200/£1000)!! AND then you need to CASH OUT!

Choose the RIGHT horse

If you are scalping an average everyday race race it will look something like this:

Runners …………………………………………………………………….8

Average amount placed on Betfair ………………………………£400,000

Average amount placed in last 10 minutes…………………..£320,000

Betting something like ……………………………………………….Fav 2/1, 3/1, 4/1, 6/1, 10/1, 12/1, 25/1, 33/1

Betfair pricing ……………………………………………………………Fav 3.2, 4.6, 5.8, 7.2, 12, 15, 32, 50

LIQUIDITY ratios ……………………………………………………….Fav £125K, £85K, £70K, £55K, £31K, £23K, The rest £10K

So in an average race the top 4 in the betting will take at least 80% of the money placed (83% in this case) and sometimes a lot more (races where there is an odds on shot @4/5 and a 2/1 second favourite these top 2 will take 85% of the money between them).

IN THE ABOVE RACE WHICH horse or horses would I be interested in?

The favourite – Yes because 3.2 is at the lower end of the range, liquidity is good and return of about 1.5% per tick.

4.6 – Yes as in lower end of range, liquidity OK, returns just over 2%

5.8 – No as top end of range, liquidity just about OK returns down to 1.7-1.8%

7.2 – Possibly – lower end of range, liquidity just about OK returns around 3%

12 – maybe but liquidity will be low and so stakes will be small.

The rest – liquidity is very low and so difficult to get anything of any size matched here.

Therefore we are interested in the favourite, second favourite on liquidity grounds and the 7.2 and maybe the 12.

How do you choose between them?

With scalping you want your horse to be trading within a tight corridor. There are two factors which will help decide this:

  1. The trading history
  2. Whether the horse is over or under weighted in the market

The first of these is simple. Just study the Betfair charts and look for the support levels. These should be in a tight range.

The second is to look for a horse which is attracting greater volume than it’s price would indicate. This makes the horse overweighted in the market. The good thing about over weighted horses is that their price is more stable.

See our YouTube channel to get more information on Over & Under weighted horses.

So we would choose the horse which meet the above criteria.

Choose the RIGHT race

The everyday trader will be trading average races, as described above, day in day out. However when there are classic races, festivals or even just busy Saturdays then the volume per race can go from £400,000 to millions. So if we are trading a race which is attracting £4m then the liquidity of the 12 horse above becomes 2.5x that of the favourite above.

This means we could trade the 12 horse with confidence, getting our £100 back & lay bets away and therefore having a great chance of achieving the 4.5% return/tick on offer.

CONCLUSION

The first rule of scalping is liquidity.

The second rule is scalping in a tight stable corridor.

The third rule is to scalp at the lower end of any trading range.

If you can the best returns for the lowest risk is to trade in the 10 to 11 betfair price range  where the three rules above are met.

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