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Yesterday: NAP – WINNER at a nice price (hope you got on at 5.5) BACK to LAY – WINNER – BSP 36 traded at 17.5 for 100%+ return PLACE VALUE – 6th – got stuck out the back and never got into it.
TODAY: Please follow the link for our unique TrackFaxs briefings they tell you about the draw, pace analysis and riders & trainers records at the course. We also tell you more about the Betfair Exchange trading videos we do. We are still providing you with tips including our NAP OF THE DAY and other tips for use with Betfair to make you money.
The Back to Lay selection includes a screenshot of the last number of races so you can see BSP versus IP Lo.
Best of luck. The InsideTraxs Team
BETFAIR EXCHANGE TRADING VIDEOS
FEATURED VIDEO
If you haven’t watched this yet do so as it is very relevant to today:
“Top Tracks for Draw Bias Pt1”
Having the right data is KEY to being one step ahead of the competition when TRADING on Betfair.
Here we share the tracks with the most pronounced draw bias, sharing statistics and explaining why.
We may make comments regarding advised and actual pricing.
Today:
Pre tweet Post tweet Actual SP
Dr Simpson 10/1 (11.6) 8/1 (8.8)
Mehdaayih 4/1 (5.0) 3/1 (4.3)
Wild Eric 9/2 (6.8) 7/2 (4.5)
Yesterday:
A Sure Welcome 7/2 (4.8) 5/2 (3.85) 5/2 (3.73) 3rd
Thorntoun Care 20/1 (27.0) 10/1 (10.0) 8/1 (9.36) 5th
NAP OF THE DAY
The NAP OF THE DAY runs at Southwell 6.35
APHAEA
After his 10l win here (therefore proven on the fibresand) over 2f shorter the selection runs without a penalty and is considered 10lbs well in.
Any repeat of that run will see him extremely hard to beat.
MAKE MONEY USING BETFAIR
BACK TO LAY:
The Back to Lay bet today runs at Chester 4.35
CHAPELLI
If you have looked at our video Top Tracks for Draw Bias Pt1 (see above) then you’ll know Chester has an enormous bias towards low drawn runners over 5f.
This horse is drawn 2 and does front run so I’m hoping he will be taken to the front by Franny Norton and in the style of a good Mark Johnston horse prove really difficult to pass.
The chart below shows this horse can trade well below BSP and has traded below on all his runs to date.
ADVICE: Back to Lay looking for 33-50% profit on your stake.
You can download the Excel spreadsheet with the “Back to Lay Staking Calculator” for FREE at www.InsideTraxs.co.uk it’s on the bottom of the homepage; with our “Weight of Money Calculator” and our “Weighting Calculator” – which tells you if a horse is over or under weight in the betting – also there for FREE download.
FALSE FAVOURITE & PLACE VALUE
FALSE FAVOURITE:
BONNEVILLE Southwell 7.35
Has run well in defeat including a good second at Salisbury and also here (so the fibresand won’t be a problem). However I don’t like backing persistent second palced horses in case they are of the sort that actually likes to follow.
Also there are some unexposed types including Hughye Morrisons well bred Spargrove who looks well treated on handicap debut rated only 58. That OR might look a little generous later in the season.
So Evens Favourite is too short.
PLACE VALUE:
CRAZY SPIN Southwell 8.05
Latest effort was not great but has some good form. If he bounces back should have an excellent chance of a top 4 finish.
