There are all sorts of winning betting strategies that fall outside of “backing the winner”. Here we look at finding PLACE value as a winning betting strategy.
In the video below Mike shows an example of the sort of race he looks for in order to eek out PLACE value as a winning betting strategy. He explains the criteria that will convince him that the bet he is embarking on is value.
In the video the example we use is the 21.15 on 26th June at Newbury where we chose Nick Vedder as the value place bet. In the race he was beaten a head into second. The horse was tanking along on the outside two furlongs out but Queally didn’t pull him out early enough and so the near side group got first run and even though he was steaming at the finish, he didn’t make that ground back up (so he should have won).
Still we got 13/8 on a horse that should have won but came a head second!!
That’s what we mean by PLACE value as a winning betting strategy.
FOR THOSE WHO WOULD LIKE A DEFINITION OF THE TERM VALUE:
Value is when you are offered odds that with all the evidence you have at your disposal are higher than they should be.
I toss a coin – what odds should you expect to get (in an ideal market where the bookies aren’t taking their cut) of the coin coming up heads? THE ANSWER is of course – EVENS – as it is as likely to come up heads as it is tails taken over many spins.
So now take the situation that there have been three heads in a row – what odds should you get? Well assuming, and we will, that this is not a bent coin, you should still get even money. However sentiment, emotion or “wish me luck” may drive someone to want to back heads again and so with this demand the odds go below evens and tails is being offered at 6/4.
THE VALUE BET is tails not heads here because someone, for whatever reason, is prepared to offer 6/4 odds on something that plainly should be evens.
Now this doesn’t mean that it will come up tails. However if you bet all even money shots at 6/4, over time you will win.
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