Spotting FALSE FAVOURITES is one of an arsenal of profitable betting strategies that can be used to select the best betting opportunities on any particular day.
Every race has an angle and it is up to us the punter to recognise which of the array of profitable betting strategies at our disposal we should use to make money. Spotting false favourites is one of the profitable betting strategies because if a horse is being backed for non rationale reasons then it’s price will be too low. If we consistently lay horses like this we will make money in the long run.
Let’s take an example:
I have a perfectly ordinary coin. I toss it four times and every time it comes up heads. I’m about to toss for the fifth time and my mate says “I bet you that coin will come up heads” and offers me 2/1 that it will come up tails.
- Do I take the bet? – YES
- Will I win? – YES on average 1 in every 2 spins which at 2/1 will mean I will be ahead in the medium to long run.
In the video I look at a typical race in which I analyse the rational reasons for the favourite to be a very low price and then spot the irrational reasons. In the example the price had shortened considerably after a well know tipster had released his tip on twitter. The tipster felt the horse was value at 5/2 but after the tip was released the price went to 5/4. This means that the horse is too short which may be compounded by the fact that it will attract further money just because it is favourite.
False favourites need to be identified early and layed. The price may well readjust outwards as the rational punters and the smart money hit the market. Profit can then be taken before the race at no risk or in running or left to play itself out – your choice.
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