Scalping as a winning betting strategy
This blog is about SCALPING as a winning betting strategy. You will see different ways to execute scalping as a winning betting strategy and videos showing you live examples.
Scalping is a trading strategy specialising in taking profits on small price changes, generally done in real time on Betfair Exchange, and involves taking a position at one price and trading it quickly as soon as it becomes profitable. It requires the trader to have a strict exit strategy, because one large loss could eliminate the many small gains.
There are several ways to scalp a market:
- Identify support levels
- Follow the money
- Follow your own analysis
1. IDENTIFY SUPPORT LEVELS
With any horse in any race there will be people who think it will win and so want to back it and people who think it will loose and so will want to lay it. When the price of the horse will depend on the level of support the horse has versus the level of resistance it has. View it as a tug of war. If there are an equal number of people on each side of the rope then the rope will stay in the middle moving backwards and forwards as each team puts in a shove. So it is with markets. If the price moves one way, say it shortens, then the number of people willing to back the horse at the shortened odds will normally be less than at the greater odds while the number of people who will oppose the horse will increase as the odds shorten. This being the case the price will go back out until it reaches a level where the number of people wanting to back the horse increases.
As can be seen from the above example this horse was perfect for scalping. We would back the horse as the market turned down at the +s and then layed it as the market turned back up at the -s.
Even though the horse has drifted over the period we still see significant resistance (at 6.0, 6.4, 6.8 and 7.2) and support (at 7.1, 7.4, 7.8 and 8.0) levels which is what we are looking for. We could then trade, backing at 7.1 and laying at 6.0 for instance, and this will provide a decent profit eg BACK £20 @ 7.1 = £122 profit then LAY £20 @ 6.0 give a liability of £100. The result is a £22 win if the horse wins with no liability if it looses or you can green up (or cash out) at 6.0 for a profit of £4.40p no matter what the result. The chart indicates that on this particular horse we could have repeated the process four times so that could have meant a profit of £17.60p from a £20 stake before the RACE HAS EVEN STARTED!
NOW you would say this is all hindsight and you would be right. However as you get more experience you can spot the support levels and also start to predict them. If the price at which you think support or resistance will come is passed this is called a breakout and the price will continue to move until a new support level is reached. This could prove either an opportunity (for instance you have backed the horse at 7.1 and you think the resistance will come at 6.0 but it continues to 5.5 then this is positive for you as you will make more money) or a threat (you back the horse at 7.1 and it continues to drift to 8.0 and so you are now loosing money). So you need an exit strategy!
Here your exit strategy could be that if the price drifts more than 0.6 points past where you expect then you will get out and take the loss (in the above example that would be £2.64).
The breakout is important because it tends to tell you what general direction the horse’s price is likely to go in particularly if you have seen consistent support and resistance up until that point.
2. FOLLOW THE MONEY
This is a simple strategy where you look for the trend in the betting particularly in the last 10 minutes before the off. Then you follow the money – normally I try to follow positive backing of a horse as below:
So I would be backing this horse at about 2.6 or 2.7 and hoping that this price will continue to shorten and then take my profit just before the off OR shortly after the off as trends tend to be confirmed early in races.
The above horse was Hope is High running at Yarmouth 3.20 and he shortened to 2.44 at the off and 2.24 after a couple of furlongs of the 1m 6f race. So I would have gained at least 0.2 to 0.4 points in a space of 2 minutes. IF I had put £50 on at 2.65 say and layed it off at 2.35 I would have greened up to make £11.11p.
The fact that the horse then didn’t win matters not the least to us.
3. FOLLOW YOUR OWN ANALYSIS
InsideTraxs looks to see opportunities in the market. We look for advantages for a horse in things like the draw, going, track, jockey, trainer, or whether the horse will front run or not etc.
The video below follows one of our tips and how you can make money based on following your strategy or you could read our tips and we will try and point you in the right direction. The horse we are tipping is Rhigolter Rose in the 16.20 at Yarmouth.
As can be seen in the video, money was made before the off and converted into a win no matter what happened.
InsideTraxs has had a good start to our online tipping with a strike rate of 45.8% in June.
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