Which racecourses have the highest hit rate for favourite backers?

Knowing which courses produce the highest winning stats for favourites can help Betfair traders formulate winning strategies

Are you a Favourite Backer?

If you are a favourite backer it is vital you know which courses and which race types produce the highest success rates.

Table of all courses in the UK

Here at Insidetraxs.co.uk we have produced a table of all the racecourses showing which courses have the highest strike rates for favourites (the spreadsheet can be downloaded here Favourite Hit Rate ):

COURSE
FAVOURITES Non Handicap (%Winners) Handicap (5 Winners)
2yo 3yo 4yo+ TOTAL 2yo 3yo 4yo+ TOTAL
Ascot 32 41 31 34 75 25 30 28
Ayr 34 42 29 36 15 25 28 27
Bath 40 44 50 43 53 38 29 34
Beverley 37 50 41 41 25 39 28 33
Brighton 42 48 67 44 33 30 32 31
Carlisle 47 47 100 48 40 40 26 32
Catterick 57 55 65 58 34 41 37
Chepstow 43 43 33 43 17 32 32 32
Chester 35 43 41 39 38 27 25 27
Doncaster 45 44 45 45 43 38 22 29
Epsom 37 32 56 39 38 35 27 31
Ffos Las 45 53 32 43 31 34 32
Goodwood 45 49 40 45 30 35 33 33
Hamilton 42 57 54 50 31 37 23 28
Haydock 39 42 36 39 20 31 30 30
Leicester 40 41 40 40 10 36 27 30
Lingfield 51 41 33 44 22 28 38 33
Musselburgh 37 50 43 40 48 35 29 32
Newmarket 38 36 38 37 25 31 27 29
Newbury 32 29 47 33 40 29 19 25
Nottingham 34 48 32 39 42 33 30 32
Pontefract 43 36 36 39 44 33 31 32
Redcar 40 51 38 43 31 31 28 29
Ripon 38 46 50 42 75 33 28 32
Salisbury 36 39 50 38 13 30 33 30
Sandown 43 47 42 44 40 41 40 41
Thirsk 44 55 65 51 28 29 29 29
Wethery 40 36 50 38 21 23 23
Windsor 50 48 53 49 44 37 28 33
Yarmouth 48 49 28 48 29 40 33 36
York 32 39 42 36 26 33 21 25

 

The list above gives the raw data of % of races won by the favourite by type of race (Handicap or non Handicap) and by age of horse.

Highest and Lowest strike rates for favourites

Below we have split out the different types of races:

So York, Newbury and Ascot produce the lowest favourite success rates and Sandown, Thirsk and Catterick have among the highest strike rates for favourites in the country.

Non handicap versus Handicaps

As you can clearly see favourite backers need to know which type of race they are going to invest in. Non Handicaps perform at least 10% above Handicaps. So if you are a favourite backer then you have a significant improved level of success if you only back favourites from non handicaps.

ANOMILIES

If you look at the chart there are some interesting “anomilies”:

Eg 2 yro handicap races at Leicester – there is a disappointing low of 10% winners because Leicester is one of the stiffest sprints and finishes in the country and 2 year old just don’t seem to do well – Or favourites don’t.

You’ll find other “anomilies” in the table.

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