Which racecourses have the highest hit rate for favourite backers?
Are you a Favourite Backer?
If you are a favourite backer it is vital you know which courses and which race types produce the highest success rates.
Table of all courses in the UK
Here at Insidetraxs.co.uk we have produced a table of all the racecourses showing which courses have the highest strike rates for favourites (the spreadsheet can be downloaded here Favourite Hit Rate ):
COURSE | ||||||||||
FAVOURITES | Non Handicap (%Winners) | Handicap (5 Winners) | ||||||||
2yo | 3yo | 4yo+ | TOTAL | 2yo | 3yo | 4yo+ | TOTAL | |||
Ascot | 32 | 41 | 31 | 34 | 75 | 25 | 30 | 28 | ||
Ayr | 34 | 42 | 29 | 36 | 15 | 25 | 28 | 27 | ||
Bath | 40 | 44 | 50 | 43 | 53 | 38 | 29 | 34 | ||
Beverley | 37 | 50 | 41 | 41 | 25 | 39 | 28 | 33 | ||
Brighton | 42 | 48 | 67 | 44 | 33 | 30 | 32 | 31 | ||
Carlisle | 47 | 47 | 100 | 48 | 40 | 40 | 26 | 32 | ||
Catterick | 57 | 55 | 65 | 58 | 34 | 41 | 37 | |||
Chepstow | 43 | 43 | 33 | 43 | 17 | 32 | 32 | 32 | ||
Chester | 35 | 43 | 41 | 39 | 38 | 27 | 25 | 27 | ||
Doncaster | 45 | 44 | 45 | 45 | 43 | 38 | 22 | 29 | ||
Epsom | 37 | 32 | 56 | 39 | 38 | 35 | 27 | 31 | ||
Ffos Las | 45 | 53 | 32 | 43 | 31 | 34 | 32 | |||
Goodwood | 45 | 49 | 40 | 45 | 30 | 35 | 33 | 33 | ||
Hamilton | 42 | 57 | 54 | 50 | 31 | 37 | 23 | 28 | ||
Haydock | 39 | 42 | 36 | 39 | 20 | 31 | 30 | 30 | ||
Leicester | 40 | 41 | 40 | 40 | 10 | 36 | 27 | 30 | ||
Lingfield | 51 | 41 | 33 | 44 | 22 | 28 | 38 | 33 | ||
Musselburgh | 37 | 50 | 43 | 40 | 48 | 35 | 29 | 32 | ||
Newmarket | 38 | 36 | 38 | 37 | 25 | 31 | 27 | 29 | ||
Newbury | 32 | 29 | 47 | 33 | 40 | 29 | 19 | 25 | ||
Nottingham | 34 | 48 | 32 | 39 | 42 | 33 | 30 | 32 | ||
Pontefract | 43 | 36 | 36 | 39 | 44 | 33 | 31 | 32 | ||
Redcar | 40 | 51 | 38 | 43 | 31 | 31 | 28 | 29 | ||
Ripon | 38 | 46 | 50 | 42 | 75 | 33 | 28 | 32 | ||
Salisbury | 36 | 39 | 50 | 38 | 13 | 30 | 33 | 30 | ||
Sandown | 43 | 47 | 42 | 44 | 40 | 41 | 40 | 41 | ||
Thirsk | 44 | 55 | 65 | 51 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 29 | ||
Wethery | 40 | 36 | 50 | 38 | 21 | 23 | 23 | |||
Windsor | 50 | 48 | 53 | 49 | 44 | 37 | 28 | 33 | ||
Yarmouth | 48 | 49 | 28 | 48 | 29 | 40 | 33 | 36 | ||
York | 32 | 39 | 42 | 36 | 26 | 33 | 21 | 25 |
The list above gives the raw data of % of races won by the favourite by type of race (Handicap or non Handicap) and by age of horse.
Highest and Lowest strike rates for favourites
Below we have split out the different types of races:
So York, Newbury and Ascot produce the lowest favourite success rates and Sandown, Thirsk and Catterick have among the highest strike rates for favourites in the country.
Non handicap versus Handicaps
As you can clearly see favourite backers need to know which type of race they are going to invest in. Non Handicaps perform at least 10% above Handicaps. So if you are a favourite backer then you have a significant improved level of success if you only back favourites from non handicaps.
ANOMILIES
If you look at the chart there are some interesting “anomilies”:
Eg 2 yro handicap races at Leicester – there is a disappointing low of 10% winners because Leicester is one of the stiffest sprints and finishes in the country and 2 year old just don’t seem to do well – Or favourites don’t.
You’ll find other “anomilies” in the table.